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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to TEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model