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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 62 yards to TEN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 25-A.Jackson ran ob at TEN 35 for 12 yards (78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.97 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 43, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP