Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

(12:13) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 57 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model