Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

(:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 1 yard (33-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -1.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model