Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

(1:50) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.42 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model