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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 89

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on TEN-33-T.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model