Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

(7:24) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 59 yards to TEN 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model