4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model