Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 4 yards (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Tankersley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at MIA 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model