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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model