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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 72

New England Patriots 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to TB 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 26 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.54 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model