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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 75

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 36 for 14 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model