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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP