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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(6:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model