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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 27

New England Patriots 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP