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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 13 for 2 yards (12-C.Godwin). PENALTY on NE-43-N.Ebner, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model