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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model