Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to TB 42 for 40 yards (39-I.Johnson). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model