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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 47

New York Giants 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to LAC 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model