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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 48

New York Giants 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Boston (94-C.Liuget) at LAC 33. 33-T.Boston to LAC 48 for 15 yards (34-S.Vereen).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model