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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 9-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model