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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to LAC 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.15 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model