Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 76

New York Giants 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 44 for 9 yards (89-J.Adams). PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.40 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model