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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model