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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 97

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to NYG 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LAC 39 for 15 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 97, worth -6.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model