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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 53

New York Giants 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP