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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model