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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 9

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller V for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model