Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Houston Texans 7

(7:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to HOU 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis. (The Punt Hang-time was 4.50 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model