Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 81

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(13:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 16 for -7 yards (43-C.Moore). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.37 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model