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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to PIT 4, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model