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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to PIT 14, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.67 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP