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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model