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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +1.09 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP