Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(1:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 29 yards to PIT 48, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model