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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Patterson [69-W.Henry].

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.90 EP