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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP