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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to BAL 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 24 for 9 yards (59-J.Condo, 47-J.Cowser).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model