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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to LV 27, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model