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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 40 for 10 yards (41-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model