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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to LV 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.39 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model