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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model