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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model