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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 38 for 4 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model