Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

(4:30) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to PHI 18, Center-97-J.Mauro, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model