Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(7:28) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to PHI 37, Center-97-J.Mauro, downed by ARI-80-I.Momah.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.67 EP
56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model