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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-J.Mauro. 38-K.Barner to PHI 28 for 15 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP