Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(4:58) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to ARI 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 7 yards (59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model