Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(7:00) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to PHI 23, Center-97-J.Mauro, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model