Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:59) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to PHI 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to PHI 46 for 19 yards (46-A.Brewer; 57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.71 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model